Baron Opportunity Fund (BIOPX)

Portfolio Management

MichaelLippert
Michael Lippert

Fund Manager since 2006

View All Commentary by Michael

Fund Description

Baron Opportunity Fund invests in innovative high-growth companies.

    

  

Portfolio Commentary

Retail Performance

Review and Outlook (for quarter ended 3/31/2016)

After a solid end to the fourth quarter of 2015, Baron Opportunity Fund had a rough start to the year. It was certainly poor from a quarterly performance perspective, but critically, in our view, not in the least from an investing perspective. Our underlying innovation themes continue to accelerate, and the vast majority of our individual investments have seen no change to their solid fundamentals. What happened in the quarter was straightforward: In January and February, the Fund’s performance was driven back by the gale force winds of a fear-driven market dominated by a “sell now, ask questions later” mentality. The Fund performed better in March. There is a lot of year left, and we continue to work at our research and portfolio management to perform as well as we can.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham, in the short term the market acts as a voting machine.  The votes of its participants are the multiples investors and traders are willing to pay at that very moment.  Daily voting is based much more on sentiment or emotions than fundamental analysis. In optimistic environments, multiples rise; in fearful, risk-off settings, they fall. In aggressive risk-off markets, the multiples assigned to higher growth, higher multiple stocks – often the recent winners – fall the most. That is precisely what happened to us in January and February. Many of our winners from last year sold off due to short-term multiple contraction, in our opinion, without a whiff of a change in their fundamentals or long- term growth opportunities.

Our Baron investment philosophy is grounded in the view that in the long term, the market is a weighing machine (the second part of Graham’s observation). We do not try to predict the daily or monthly voting by the market. Instead, we hold fast to the belief that the market’s long-term weighing machine correctly values companies based on the fundamental growth drivers of their business.

That is why we focus on whether companies possess durable and powerful competitive advantages, their financial models and balance sheets, and the quality of their management teams. Valuation, of course, is a key piece of the puzzle. But while we monitor and consider current and near-term multiples, short-term valuation does not dominate our thinking. We have learned through years of experience that many of the truly special companies and some of the strongest long-term returners, like Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Netflix, always appear somewhat expensive on near-term numbers. So we prioritize long-term valuation: investing when applying conservative and appropriate multiples to our internal forecasts of free cash flow and earnings can make at least a double over a 4-to-5-year period.

Our approach is a differentiated, long-term strategy. We provide our investors with something distinct from a passive ETF or generalized growth fund: a focused portfolio of higher growth and innovative businesses capitalizing on powerful secular growth trends. While we can offer no guarantees, we are committed to tipping the scales of the weighing machine in our investors’ favor.

Top Contributors/Detractors to Performance

Contributors (for quarter ended 3/31/2016)
  • Mellanox Technologies Ltd. supplies semiconductor-based interconnect solutions and services. Strong Q4 results re-instilled investor confidence in Mellanox’s ability to grow profitably. In addition, the completion of its EZchip acquisition and adjusted guidance laid out a strong financial case for this combination. We view Mellanox’s Ethernet business as a significant open ended opportunity. We expect Mellanox to be a high-end market leader and protect its high margin business model with strong innovation and product leadership.

  • Shares of Facebook, Inc., the world’s largest social network, rose in Q1, driven by improving consumer engagement and monetization. Facebook is the largest beneficiary of the shift in consumer engagement to mobile. Facebook is using its leadership position to provide global advertisers targeted marketing capabilities at scale. Facebook is in the early stages of monetizing online video and Instagram, which are starting to contribute to incremental revenue growth. WhatsApp and Oculus provide additional avenues for growth opportunities.

  • Equinix, Inc., an operator of carrier-neutral data centers, continued to make progress on several fronts: 1) the closing of its Telecity acquisition in Europe, 2) a strong finish to 2015 with organic growth beating analyst expectations, and 3) maintaining financial flexibility and a strong balance sheet in an uncertain market. In addition, supply/demand in the data center space is favorable and price accommodative with consolidation capping supply and cloud and outsourcing lifting demand. All of those contributed to an increase in the stock price in Q1.

Detractors (for quarter ended 3/31/2016)
  • LinkedIn Corp. is the world’s largest online professional network. It has three business segments: Hiring Solutions, Marketing Solutions, and Premium Subscriptions, each serving different customers. Despite strong 4Q15 results, shares were down in Q1 due to a weak 2016 outlook. After several quarters of inconsistent results, we believe management is finding it increasingly difficult to manage the complexity of three businesses. We exited the position.

  • Restoration Hardware Holdings Inc. offers home furnishings via retail stores, catalogs, and websites. The stock fell hard in Q1 when the company pre-announced weak Q4 (March) results based on shipping delays in its new ‘RH Modern’ line, a more promotional retail environment, and a pullback by the high-end consumer, especially in markets (Canada, Texas, and Miami) affected by energy, or currency fluctuations. Given uncertainty shifting to an unproven membership model, slowdown of new store rollout, and a weakening core customer base, we exited the position.

  • Shares of property and casualty (P&C) insurance software vendor Guidewire Software, Inc. fell in Q1 as high-growth, high-multiple technology stocks sold off aggressively. Guidewire is the leader among P&C core systems vendors, as evidenced by near-perfect retention rates, growing installed base, and accelerating adoption of its complete suite. It is in the early innings of a core system replacement cycle, and is expanding its market through persistent innovation. We think recent deals with six Tier 1 vendors represent a tipping point in demand.

Quarterly Attribution Analysis (for quarter ended 3/31/2016)

The Quarterly Attribution Analysis for period ending March 31, 2016 is not yet available

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The prospective performance of the companies discussed herein is based on our internal analysis and reflect our opinions only. We cannot promise future returns and our opinions are a reflection of our best judgement at the time of publication. Our views are not intended as recommendations or investment advice to any person and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions and Baron has no obligation to update them. Investing in the stock market is always risky. Current and future portfolio holdings in the Fund are subject to risk.

Source: FactSet PA